Ŷ̬ 
 
The current position Home > NEWS > INDUSTRY NEWS >
The impact of the introduction of black goods on the black g


Event background
April 1, the CPC Central Committee and State Council issued a notice, decided to set up Hebei Xiong'an District. This is a major historical strategic choice made by the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core. It is a new area with national significance after the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai Pudong New Area. It is a national event.
The planning area of Xiong'an New District covers Hebei Xiongxian, Rongcheng, Anxin 3 counties and surrounding areas. It is located in the hinterland of Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding. The advantages are obvious, the traffic is convenient and smooth, the ecological environment is excellent and the resources and environment carrying capacity are strong , The existing level of development is low, the development of ample space, with high starting point and high standards of development and construction of the basic conditions. Xiong'an New District planning and construction to a specific area as the starting area of the first development, the starting area of about 100 square kilometers, the medium-term development area of about 200 square kilometers, long-term control area of about 2,000 square kilometers.
On the impact of black goods
The introduction of Xiong'an New District is part of the strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, but the strategy has a significant upgrade. Xiong'an New District to the standard Shenzhen New District and Pudong New Area, not the ordinary level of the new district, similar to the concept of the SAR. Its positioning as "Beijing non-capital function to ease the concentration of ground", similar to the then Pudong New Area of Shanghai Center to ease. Then its impact will be relatively long-term, and the corresponding assessment requires further information disclosure.
Short-term impact For black goods, on the one hand is the initial construction of new infrastructure, from the downstream demand directly affect the black goods; the other is the introduction of special zones, the relevant policy support. For the black, this year's policy impact on the larger "in the production capacity" and environmental policy, the impact of policy will be transmitted to the price through the supply.
1, black price Ching Ming Festival before the holiday two days
A week before the Ching Ming Festival, the domestic black spot price decline slowed down, the overall pattern of weak to run. Accompanied by the security of the new market to the market in the positive, Tangshan billet prices in the Qingming holiday accumulated 90 yuan / ton, to 3140 yuan / ton. Double focus, 1 Hebei Handan high sulfur coke up 70 to 1720, quasi-offer 1810.
2, the new district construction will directly pull infrastructure needs
The construction of Xiong'an New District will accelerate the construction of local infrastructure, thus increasing the consumption of steel, especially the demand for building materials will show explosive growth. Xiongxian, Rongcheng, Anxin existing basic conditions are poor, supporting the construction of the city are much lower than the Binhai New Area and Tongzhou deputy center established level, and according to the new "high starting point of high standard development and construction" of the construction requirements, almost all reconstruction. At the same time, the relevant supporting inter-city high-speed rail, highway construction will also consume a lot of steel. The increase in demand for steel will inevitably lead to the growth of demand for iron ore. According to the development plan of Tongzhou Sub-Center, the core area is 48 square kilometers and the planned total investment is 990 million, while the starting area of Xiong'an New District is 100 square kilometers , The medium-term area of 200 square kilometers, respectively, the former 2 times and 4 times, taking into account its basic conditions compared to Tongzhou poor, and the construction of new units of fixed assets investment consumption of steel strength is greater than the national average, Of the initial consumption of steel in the 10 million tons, medium-term consumption of steel increased by 20 million tons.
The initial demand for steel, the demand for rebar is greater than the hot rolled coil. But the current specific plan has not yet announced, from the construction cycle, the short-term impact on the steel demand is not, short-term pulse of the demand for the impact of steel prices is more emotional, because the longer the supply side of the back full.
For the late, in April for the construction industry peak season, strong demand. After the Ching Ming Festival with the temperature to pick up, northwest, north, regional infrastructure into the real recovery stage. In the long run, real estate investment is not optimistic, the black line in the first quarter rally slowed down, especially in March across the country under the influence of rainwater weather, black disk decline, it is pessimistic expectations of the demand side reflect. In early April, after a month of weak operation, Xiong'an District, the demand for infrastructure boost, is the black for the major delivery of the major positive. So the probability of a seasonal rebound in the whole month has also been enhanced.
3, from the policy aspects of the supply of the impact
As the "Beijing non-capital function to ease the burden of carrying", Xiong'an District, the construction is divided into several stages, the initial is 100 square kilometers, the target is 2000 square kilometers, the inevitable pattern of the surrounding industry has a new plan. Last year and this year's Hebei two sessions have the relevant views of the Government, the future Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Langfang three steel production capacity all quit. The introduction of the new security zone will accelerate the process. In addition, the Xiong An New Zone is located in the middle of Hebei. With the completion of the new district, the corresponding high-standard meeting will increase, and the environmental enforcement requirements will be further strengthened. The short-term production of steel will have an impact. The overall supply will be bullish steel prices, short-term policy The impact of the demand is greater than the impact of new infrastructure needs.
Iron ore, the Hebei region has a higher demand for the environment, which in the resumption of production in terms of domestic production in a certain extent. However, the distribution of iron from the Hebei area and the location of the new district, the actual impact should be small. Hebei iron ore distribution in the Jidong area, namely, Tangshan, Chengde and Qinhuangdao, three provinces accounted for more than 80% of the province's reserves, and Xiong'an New District, Baoding and similar Langfang area total reserves accounted for less than 1% Hebei area to restore the distribution of mining, but also more in Tangshan and Chengde two places, so from the environmental point of view, the construction of new areas of Hebei Province, the impact of small production. However, from the demand side of the steel, because the steel plant near the Xiong'an New District, so the increase in demand for steel will lead to ore demand, especially for inland in Chengde region, is expected to increase the consumption of local iron ore.
Double focus, since the beginning of 2017, Shanxi province-wide environmental protection work has become the focus of government work. From December 15, 2016 in the province to carry out the "iron fist pollution control action", and set up a "iron fist action" leadership group, by the Shanxi Provincial Standing Committee, vice governor Sun Shao Cheng as commander, member units By the environmental protection, development and reform, by the letter, public security and other 13 departments. As of March 24, 2017, Shanxi province at all levels of environmental protection departments to investigate the existence of environmental problems found in the enterprise 4887; has issued a fine of 92.09 million yuan; ban all types of small and medium enterprises 1147. We found from the micro-research, 2017, Shanxi Province, an unprecedented increase in environmental protection requirements, environmental protection equipment is not up to the coking enterprises are directly facing the risk of being limited or even banned. In the current round of environmental inspection, and even use the UAV and other advanced equipment to carry out the main test area of the main gas production and production inspection. On the environmental protection is not guaranteed and illegal production enterprises to resolutely crack down. This round of environmental management activities, the intensity and effectiveness of unprecedented significant.
Overall, with the establishment of the new security zone, the main steel producing areas to enhance environmental protection requirements, will fully affect the entire black supply and demand structure. As the country's steel production in Hebei Province will be with the new administrative level of the upgrade, the overall environmental requirements will also be improved. At present, the national steel plant operating rate under the influence of high profits to maintain high, the continued growth of production, making the market supply and demand pressure is high. Environmental protection limited production, as an important constraint on the supply side, with the establishment of Xiong'an District, the supply of constraints will also be greatly enhanced.
According to the comprehensive analysis, the construction of Xiong'an New District will form strong support for the demand of steel in the region. The short-term news will have the influence of price and the influence of the infrastructure will be small, and the influence of "production capacity" and environmental protection policy will be further fermented, Overall bullish steel. And then bullish iron ore demand, which for the supply of serious excess of iron ore is a big positive, combined with environmental protection efforts to strengthen and to the depth of production, high-grade ore will continue to be the preferred steel mills, which will effectively delay The outbreak of the contradiction between the total amount of iron ore, making the price of the structural problems under the support of the strong trend can be maintained. However, the construction of the new district is a long process, the Millennium plan is not a day of work, so the actual demand for iron ore in the short term to enhance the limited, so the price will be more in the news of speculation up, and for long-term trend, also Need to look at the construction progress of the new district, so as to determine the actual demand for iron ore.
Comprehensive analysis
According to the comprehensive analysis, the construction of Xiong'an New District will form strong support for the demand of steel in the region. The short-term news will have the influence of price and the influence of the infrastructure will be small, and the influence of "production capacity" and environmental protection policy will be further fermented, Overall bullish steel. Combined with the strengthening of environmental protection and to the depth of production capacity, high-grade ore will continue to be the first choice for steel, which will effectively delay the outbreak of the contradiction between the total iron ore, making the price of structural problems under the support of the strong trend can be maintained The However, the construction of the new district is a long process, the Millennium plan is not a day of work, so the actual demand for iron ore in the short term to enhance the limited, so the price will be more in the news of speculation up, and for long-term trend, also Need to look at the construction progress of the new district, so as to determine the actual demand for iron ore.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Article Source: http: //www.steelwin.com/

return